Strategy for Playing the Bubble
How to Play the Bubble of Online Poker Tournaments
In every poker tournament, there is a player who is the last to bust out before the money paying places. Once that player has gone, the bubble has burst – the remaining field are all guaranteed at least a small prize – and there are often collective sighs of relief from the field!
This article covers some of the strategy considerations as the bubble approaches. Since there is more than one type of poker tournament, I have broken this down into four situations. The first is for regular poker tournaments. Here you’ll find out how stack sizes and your overall approach to the game make a difference to your strategy. After that the bubble of sit n go tournaments, satellite qualifiers and then the unique ‘final table bubble’ spots are covered.
Bubble Strategy in Regular Poker Tournaments
As the number of players needing to bust before the paying spots gets smaller, several things happen in a typical online poker tournament. First the smallest stacks tighten up. They are clinging on, hoping to reach the money before they blind away. Next, many of the mid-sized stacks tighten right up. The (bad) logic is that there is no point risking chips right before the money – that they will get the min-cash in the bag first, and then start playing more hands. The big stacks are in their element at this point in the game. Since most other players have tightened up, they can steal a lot of chips. By keeping pressure on their opponents, big stacks can win small pots unchallenged a lot of the time.
When you step back and look at the long term – the bubble strategy for medium sized stacks, and small stacks starts to look incorrect.
Since the prize pool for tournaments is very top-heavy, the aim should be to win (or at least hit the final table) and not just to cash. In fact, busting out at the bubble is not a big loser long-term if you double-up a couple of other times you make a move – and end up going deep.
Mid-sized stacks often miss opportunities to resteal against the big stacks. Since the big stacks are actively trying to use their stack to win pots uncontested, they will often be raising light. This means that a timely resteal can win a lot of chips! Sure, you will get called sometimes – though over time you’ll find some profitable spots.
Many of your adjustments will be opponent dependent. For example, if a tight and quiet player with a mid-sized stack suddenly wakes up raising, you can be fairly sure they have a strong hand and make a lay-down.
Bubble Strategy for Satellite Qualifiers
When the prizes are equal – as is the case when everyone gets the same ticket to a bigger tournament in a qualifier game – your bubble strategy changes. Accumulating extra chips does not improve your long-term equity by much. If you have a good-sized stack, then the best approach can be to become risk adverse. If you can fold into the money, particularly when the table is active and contains some short stacks, then this is the best approach to follow.
Big stacks can take advantage of this risk-aversion at the bubble of a satellite qualifier. Since any opponent with a comfortable stack will so rarely call, it is relatively easy to steal chips. Remember that the small stacks should be kept under pressure though!
Bubble Strategy for Sit N Goes
In a 1-table sit and go, the bubble occurs when there are 4 players – with 3 of them getting paid. Here your approach is different from the bubble in MTTs or satellite qualifiers. Instead of thinking in terms of playing to win or ‘playing to cash’, you need to play each hand in terms of your long-term equity. With the value of chips you win smaller than those you might lose, the correct approach is to be aggressive with your (often all-in) raises, though call with relatively few hands.
To become an expert at the bubble of a Sit N Go, you need to learn some math. A formula known as the ‘Independent Chip Model’ will show you when to push all-in and when to profitably call. To ensure profitable play over the long-term, you need to develop reads on what your opponents will be pushing and calling with. You’ll find opponents that understand ICM play differently to those who do not – your task is to work out who knows what!
Final Table Bubbles
Back to multi-table tournaments for the last section on this page. While the bubble usually describes the paying places, there is another ‘unspoken’ bubble in every tournament. When there are just 1 or 2 players to go before the final table begins, players behave the same as they do at the money bubble. Short and mid-stacks will tighten up, and big stacks will steal pots. If you are aware of the changing dynamic, you will often find profitable spots to resteal chips.
